I would add "The China Syndome" by Autor et al as definitive evidence that welfare gains from trades as traditionally taught in economics courses, are dubious.
From Angry Bear.
I would add "The China Syndome" by Autor et al as definitive evidence that welfare gains from trades as traditionally taught in economics courses, are dubious.
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Krugman "The debacle rolls on."
If this is how bad it is for the US, how bad will it be for Europe?
From the NY Times. 25+ years into the anti-salt campaign, the evidence on negative health outcomes is not there.
Another commencement adddress, this time by Atul Guwande in the New Yorker.
"Scientists have given a new name to the deaths that occur in surgery after something goes wrong—whether it is an infection or some bizarre twist of the stomach. They call them a “failure to rescue.” More than anything, this is what distinguished the great from the mediocre. They didn’t fail less. They rescued more. This may in fact be the real story of human and societal improvement. We talk a lot about “risk management”—a nice hygienic phrase. But in the end, risk is necessary. Things can and will go wrong. Yet some have a better capacity to prepare for the possibility, to limit the damage, and to sometimes even retrieve success from failure. When things go wrong, there seem to be three main pitfalls to avoid, three ways to fail to rescue. You could choose a wrong plan, an inadequate plan, or no plan at all. Say you’re cooking and you inadvertently set a grease pan on fire. Throwing gasoline on the fire would be a completely wrong plan. Trying to blow the fire out would be inadequate. And ignoring it—“Fire? What fire?”—would be no plan at all." I think Eurozone is three for three in pitfalls. He ends on a note of optimism. "So you will take risks, and you will have failures. But it’s what happens afterward that is defining. A failure often does not have to be a failure at all. However, you have to be ready for it—will you admit when things go wrong? Will you take steps to set them right?—because the difference between triumph and defeat, you’ll find, isn’t about willingness to take risks. It’s about mastery of rescue." Soros says its up to Germany and they have a 3 month window to make it or break it.
"When financial markets discovered that supposedly riskless government bonds might be forced into default, they raised risk premiums dramatically. This rendered potentially insolvent commercial banks, whose balance sheets were loaded with such bonds, giving rise to Europe's twin sovereign debt and banking crisis.The eurozone is now replicating how the global financial system dealt with such crises in 1982 and again in 1997. In both cases, the international authorities inflicted hardship on the periphery in order to protect the centre; now Germany is unknowingly playing the same role. The details differ, but the idea is the same: creditors are shifting the entire burden of adjustment onto debtors, while the "centre" avoids its own responsibility for the imbalances. Interestingly, the terms "centre" and "periphery" have crept into usage almost unnoticed. Yet, in the euro crisis, the centre's responsibility is even greater than it was in 1982 or 1997: it designed a flawed currency system and failed to correct the defects. In the 1980s, Latin America suffered a lost decade; a similar fate now awaits Europe." Exactly why I have been mocking austerity. Those who wish the Eruzone to stay together should be careful what they wish for and should remember the wise words of Meatloaf, from Paradise by The Dashboard Light: II. Let Me Sleep On It Girl: Stop right there! I gotta know right now! Before we go any further--! Do you love me? Will you love me forever? Do you need me? Will you never leave me? Will you make me so happy for the rest of my life? Will you take me away and will you make me your wife? Do you love me!? Will you love me forever!? Do you need me!? Will you never leave me!? Will you make me so happy for the rest of my life!? Will you take me away and will you make me your wife!? I gotta know right now Before we go any further Do you love me!!!? Will you love me forever!!!? Boy: Let me sleep on it Baby, baby let me sleep on it Let me sleep on it And I'll give you my answer in the morning Let me sleep on it Baby, baby let me sleep on it Let me sleep on it And I'll give you my answer in the morning Let me sleep on it Baby, baby let me sleep on it Let me sleep on it And I'll give you my answer in the morning Girl: I gotta know right now! Do you love me? Will you love me forever? Do you need me? Will you never leave me? Will you make me so happy for the rest of my life? Will you take me away and will you make me your wife? I gotta know right now! Before we go any further Do you love me? And will you love me forever? Boy: Let me sleep on it Baby, baby let me sleep on it Let me sleep on it And I'll give you my answer in the morning Let me sleep on it!!! Girl: Will you love me forever? Boy: Let me sleep on it!!! Girl: Will you love me forever!!! III. Praying for the End of Time Boy: I couldn't take it any longer Lord I was crazed And when the feeling came upon me Like a tidal waveI started swearing to my god and on my mother's grave That I would love you to the end of time I swore that I would love you to the end of time! So now I'm praying for the end of time To hurry up and arrive Cause if I gotta spend another minute with you I don't think that I can really survive I'll never break my promise or forget my vow But God only knows what I can do right now I'm praying for the end of time It's all that I can do Praying for the end of time, so I can end my time with you!!! Boy: It was long ago and it was far away and it was so much better than it is today Girl: It never felt so good It never felt so right And we were glowing likeA metal on the edge of a knife Michael Lewis gives the commencement speech at Princeton. He explains why the top 1% should not confuse skill with luck and that they have a responsibility to those who have been unlucky.
Those who preach austerity (T-Party folks) may eventually have to realize that in reality it is counterproductive.
Huh? Where did all the corporate profits go?
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry." - William Shakespeare, Hamlet, 1.3 European bankers meet at Hamlet's caslte to discus the Eurozone crisis. You can't make this shit up folks. That's why Hugh Hendry says when he looks to Europe's problems he draws his inspiration from fiction. Hamlet is our doomed Prince, who stuck with indecision between revenge and forgiveness for the treacherous murder of his father (by his uncle) causes the death of his family and friends. What could be more appropriate for the muddlers of Europe? Here is my Eurozone translation of Hamlet's most famous soliloquy "To be, or not to be, that is the question: (Euro existentialism) Whether 'tis Nobler in the mind to suffer The Slings and Arrows of outrageous Fortune, (accept austerity) Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles, (reject austerirty and riot) And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep No more; and by a sleep, to say we end (leave the euro) The heart-ache, and the thousand Natural shocks That Flesh is heir to? 'Tis a consummation Devoutly to be wished. To die to sleep, To sleep, perchance to Dream; Ay, there's the rub, (Maybe if we kick the can down the road things will get better?) For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come, (May the ECB can save us?) When we have shuffled off this mortal coil (deleverage by defaulting on soverign and bank debt) Must give us pause. There's the respect (We have lost control of the process and don't know what to do) That makes Calamity of so long life: For who would bear the Whips and Scorns of time, (This isn't fair, we tried our best-we even bannned short selling) The Oppressor's wrong, the proud man's Contumely, [F:poor] The pangs of despised Love, the Law’s delay, [F:disprized] The insolence of Office, and the Spurns That patient merit of the unworthy takes, When he himself might his Quietus make With a bare Bodkin? Who would Fardels bear, To grunt and sweat under a weary life, But that the dread of something after death, The undiscovered Country, from whose bourn (We are afraid of what will happen if we break up the Eurozone) No Traveller returns, Puzzles the will, And makes us rather bear those ills we have, Than fly to others that we know not of. Thus Conscience does make Cowards of us all, (We should split up but don't have the balls) And thus the Native hue of Resolution Is sicklied o'er, with the pale cast of Thought, And enterprises of great pitch and moment, [F:pith] With this regard their Currents turn awry, [F:away] And lose the name of Action. Soft you now, (Let's kick the can down the road) The fair Ophelia? Nymph, in thy Orisons Be all my sins remembered." (German squabbling with the rest of Europe will once again visit great destruction on the world). RIP Eurozone. |
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