Here is another link, by Mish, criticizing ECRI’s recession call. He takes exception to their characterization and manipulation of the data, but is bearish about US economic prospects. Hussman cites ECRI’s indicators as part justification for his bearish view on the markets and investment climate. For my part, I gave my perspectives on analytical debates vs. qualitative analysis
here. I am skeptical that in general there is going to be any set of data that is conclusive. People have to choose which evidence to weight. Too often people chose evidence and models that rely on short term or improperly considered historical data.
If I am to admit a weakness in my approach it is from a technical, not a fundamental basis that I seem to err, as I tend to underestimate how long unsustainable imbalances (dot com, credit bubble, Euro zone, China, debt crisis) can persist. As a friend of mine put it, there is no market for a 4-5 year time horizon. As per Keynes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
My own outlook despite the “good news” remains unchanged. I think the world economy is in a precarious position and we will have a substantial downturn in the US economy and continued deterioration in Europe/Japan and China will have a hard landing. This I believe is happening now. The last US recession began Dec. 2007. How many of us were aware of it before August/Sept. 2008 notwithstanding its severity? Since I have been expecting a US recession since summer 2011, I guess if it doesn’t show up by the end of the summer 2012, I will admit to being wrong.
On my timing.
here. I am skeptical that in general there is going to be any set of data that is conclusive. People have to choose which evidence to weight. Too often people chose evidence and models that rely on short term or improperly considered historical data.
If I am to admit a weakness in my approach it is from a technical, not a fundamental basis that I seem to err, as I tend to underestimate how long unsustainable imbalances (dot com, credit bubble, Euro zone, China, debt crisis) can persist. As a friend of mine put it, there is no market for a 4-5 year time horizon. As per Keynes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
My own outlook despite the “good news” remains unchanged. I think the world economy is in a precarious position and we will have a substantial downturn in the US economy and continued deterioration in Europe/Japan and China will have a hard landing. This I believe is happening now. The last US recession began Dec. 2007. How many of us were aware of it before August/Sept. 2008 notwithstanding its severity? Since I have been expecting a US recession since summer 2011, I guess if it doesn’t show up by the end of the summer 2012, I will admit to being wrong.
On my timing.
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