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University of Chicago Professor summarizes the story so far.
Interfluidity on what the earlier bailouts were about. Pettis on the need for European debt restructuring and the perils of delay. Ambrose Pritchard on the blow back of the insane deal Europe is offering Greece.
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I think this is an older video dating back to 2011 pre-US downgrade. PIMCO'S El-Erian via Zerohedge. Structural unemployment, central bank creating systemic risk, the Eurozone market design issues and execution.Financial repression, deflation. you have heard it all here before. He is more optimisitc then i am aboout China's ability to manage its economy.
... it is Argentina in 1999-2002.
After riots in Decembr 2001, Argentina went off the peg and unemployment reached 25%. A year later, 58% of the population fell below the poverty line, more than one in four were in extreme poverty. This led to nationalization of some industries. Adjustments in Spain and Greece have barely begun and their unemployment levels are at 25% already (and they are still on a fixed peg). Here is an an exceprt from the Wikipedia pages on the crisis. "Worker-owned cooperatives and self-management During the economic collapse, many business owners and foreign investors drew all of their money out of the Argentine economy and sent it overseas. As a result, many small and medium enterprises closed due to lack of capital, thereby exacerbating unemployment. Many workers at these enterprises, faced with a sudden loss of employment and no source of income, decided to reopen businesses on their own, without the presence of the owners and their capital, as self-managed cooperatives. Worker managed cooperative businesses range from ceramics factory Zanon (FaSinPat), to the four-star Hotel Bauen, to suit factory Brukman, to printing press Chilavert, and many others. In some cases, former owners sent police to remove workers out of these workplaces; this was sometimes successful but in other cases workers defended occupied workplaces against the state, the police, and the bosses. A survey by an Argentina newspaper in the capital found that around 1/3 of the population had participated in general assemblies. The assemblies used to take place in street corners and public spaces, and generally gathered to discuss ways of helping each other in the face of eviction, or organizing around issues like health care, collective food buying, or conducting free food distribution programs. Some assemblies started to create new structures of health care and schooling, to replace the old ones that were not working. Neighborhood assemblies met once a week in a large assembly to discuss issues affecting the larger community.In 2004, Avi Lewis and Naomi Klein (author of No Logo) released the documentary The Take, about these events. Some businesses have now been legally purchased by the workers for nominal fees, others remain 'occupied' by workers who have no legal standing with the state (and in some cases reject negotiation with the state on the grounds that working productively is its own justification). The Argentine government is considering a Law of Expropriation that would transfer some occupied businesses to their worker-managers." Some version of this most certainly lies ahead for the peripherry of Europe. For Spain, I think it is not too much to say things will be worse than Argentina -becasue of its housing bubble, fixed exchange rate, banking crisss. and a backdrop of global deleveraging. Those who preach austerity (T-Party folks) may eventually have to realize that in reality it is counterproductive.
As I have noted with my students for several years, and more recently on these pages, when Argentina defaulted they paid back 40% of their debt. This amount has then formed the upper estimate of what my threshold for Greek default loan repayment.
Here is a news report that suggests the negotiations for default are coming in exactly at 40%. My thanks to a friend, Brent. He is the source for many of the links which I cite on this blog. On another note, I notice that Hussman is also drawing comparisons with Argentina in his analysis of how the Greek story is likely to play out. Picked up this line from the newswire:
"The IMF has said banks across the continent might need up to €200 billion ($267 billion) in new capital." Greece owes €340 billion, mainly to French and German banks. So I think the IMF's guess might just cover the tab for the amount Greece will default on its debt - if one is optimistic. My estimate is that Greece will pay no more than 40% of its existing debt. That's what Argentina paid 10 years ago, and I see no reason to place Greece in a superior economic and repayment position. Tthere seems to be no failure of optimism at the IMF. I guess all the other countries in the Eurozone will just be fine, fine, fine. Oh yeah, Sarkozy and Merkel reached a deal on French and German bank recapitalization - but they can't tell us about it until they run it by Finland and Austria. The German and French tax payer should start singing along to Alanis Morissette's "Hand in my Pocket" because their governments most certainly will be robbing them soon. The IMF,Merkel and Sarkozy can sing the chorus. French and German Taxpayer sings: I'm broke but I'm happy I'm poor but I'm kind I'm short but I'm healthy, yeah I'm high but I'm grounded I'm sane but I'm overwhelmed I'm lost but I'm hopeful baby The IMF, Merkel and Sarkozy sings: And what it all comes down to Is that I haven't got it all figured out just yet 'cause I've got one hand in my pocket And the other one is giving the peace sign I feel better already. Music soothes the soul. |
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