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Debt levels and housing prices in Canada

2/17/2016

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Zerohedge 

...just ask Canadians, half of whom said in response to a new Ipsos Reid survey that they are within $200 per month of not being able to pay their bills and make their debt payments.
"Ipsos Reid conducted the poll about a week after the Parliamentary Budget Office issued a report on Jan. 19 that said Canada has seen the largest increase in household debt relative to income of any G7 country since 2000," The Calgary Herald writes, adding that "31 per cent of respondents said any increase in interest rates could move them towards bankruptcy".
The survey also found that 25% of Canadians are already unable to cover their bills and service their debt.
Bloomberg
Demand for new condominiums in Canada’s oil patch sank the most last year since 2008, according to data from Altus Group Ltd. Sales of condos in Calgary fell 38 percent to about 3,000 units from 4,805 units the prior year, according to the Toronto-based real estate consulting and advisory firm. That’s the biggest year-over-year drop since the financial crisis in 2008, when transactions fell 72 percent to 1,103 units.


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Canadian Household Debt Study

7/29/2015

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CPA Canada
Senior debt via CBC
Food banks in Alberta via CBC
Consumer bankruptcies on  the rise

Our conclusions include the following: Households’ perceptions are not responsive to signs indicating a possible deterioration in the economic environment; however, households are aware of their susceptibility to specific negative financial shocks. A number of recent developments suggest a possible deterioration of Canada’s economic prospects; those include the decline in international oil prices and Bank of Canada’s target interest rate. However, households outside Alberta did not view these changes as having the potential to affect their financial wellbeing: 
• Nearly half (49%) of households said these changes would not have a noticeable impact on their financial wellbeing over the next 12 months. 
• In total, 34% of households said the changes in oil prices and interest rates were likely to prompt them to decrease their current pace of savings, while 22% thought they were likely to borrow more than was initially planned as a result of the shift in economic conditions. 
• Further, households that reported having no wealth were much more likely to say that the changing economic environment would prompt them into more extensive borrowing and lesser effort of saving. While providing substantive insight into provincial or regional differences is difficult without a deeper level of data, it is clear from the survey results that households in Alberta are different than in the rest of the country, likely because Albertans will be more directly affected by the recent decline in oil prices. While only 16% of Canadians surveyed expected a negative change in their financial situation because of changes in the economic outlook, 34% of Albertans expected to be negatively affected by such change. 

Our primary finding is supported by evidence that the behaviour and attitudes of households has changed very little in the face of the change in economic outlook and the increased uncertainty since mid-2014. A comparison of the results from the two waves of CPA Canada’s Households Public Opinion survey—spring of 2014 and winter of 2015—suggests that households did not noticeably change their approach to managing finances in light of the shifting economic conditions and the attention drawn to those developments by various observers. By comparison, when asked how they would react to a specific, quantifiable economic shock, households showed both understanding and the willing to take appropriate financial measures to protect their wealth.



For example:
 • Seventy-nine per cent of mortgage holders agreed they would have to make adjustments to meet their mortgage obligations should their household income decline by 25% for at least three months. Forty per cent of mortgage holders said they would have to cut back on spending and the same percentage said they would have to use cash or money in savings accounts to ensure mortgage obligations were met. 

• All property owners felt that a 15% decline in housing prices would be associated with some negative consequences in addition to psychological discomfort. Twenty-four per cent of property owners said the decline in housing prices would reduce their retirement savings, while 21% thought they would have to cut spending. The perceived impact of the price decline was greater for non-retired households and those with lower levels of equity in their homes. 

While Canadian households rate themselves highly in terms of financial discipline, not many households are paying attention to signals of potential economic weakness and are taking measures that could help mitigate financial vulnerability. A total of 65% of Canadian households assessed the level of their financial discipline as somewhat or very strong. 

However: • Only 60% of households with debt said they paid off a portion of their outstanding debt on a regular basis (weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, etc.)

. Forty-one per cent of households with home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) did not make regular payments that covered both interest and principal to repay the outstanding balance. 

More than half (53%) of non-retired households said they did not save on a regular basis and 30% of households reported that they had no wealth.

 • Few households said they kept themselves well informed regarding the value of their wealth: 25% had either never calculated their wealth or last calculated it about a year or more ago; as many as 20% of those surveyed did not remember when their household last assessed the value of its wealth. 

• Few households monitored changes in external economic and regulatory conditions; 24% of households said they did not usually watch the key external factors that could affect their financial wellbeing. 

• A full 51% of non-retired households said they did not have a special reserve fund for unexpected financial emergencies. About a fifth of those who had such a fund said that the emergency savings would allow their household to cover regular expenses for no longer than four weeks. 


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I am Here to Throw Cold Water on the Beggar Thy Neighbor Policies of CBs

9/25/2012

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Housing up for 6th month in a row and consumer sentiment up more than expected. But I am the Grinch that stole Christmas.

From Zerohedge:
"The main reason for the surge in consumer "confidence" in September was the near  record surge in sentiment for those aking $15,000-$25,000, which soared from 43.5 to 62.4 in the month, the most since April 2009. And whether this was due  to their forecast of the future, and expectation that things will get much  better, or not, we don't know, what we do know is that half all of
those  people
whose sentiment defined the market tone today, and who may be  quite instrumental in the outcome of the coming election (per Mitt  Romney), have less than $100 in cash savings."

From the Winnipeg Free Press (hat tip Mish):
"Did you smile or cheer when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke  announced Quantitative Easing III (and the markets went up)?

 He just declared war on your job, and the whole Canadian economy. Of course, so did the European Central Bank, the central bank of the Peoples'  Republic of China and others. All of them are engaged in the same practice. They're printing money. Gobs of  it, in programs that have no end point.

Some are doing it to apply stimulus to revive their economies. Some are doing  it to play extend-and-pretend games to hold their banks together. For a country like Canada, with an economy in reasonably good shape, a  government that's not out of control, banks that are healthy and dependent on  exports, it's a declaration of war."

Finally, what about yesterday's news that Germany looks like it is going into recession? How's France doing? How about Japan?

 On corrupt, eliteist wealth from the Book Of Mormon (Take that Mitt Romney)
"In calling the Nephites to repentance, Samuel the Lamanite warned that "the time  cometh that [the Lord] curseth your riches, that they become slippery, that ye  cannot hold them; and in the days of your poverty ye cannot retain them"  (Helaman 13:31). In that day the Nephites would lament, "We have hid up our  treasures and they have slipped away from us, because of the curse of the land.  O that we had repented in the day that the word of the Lord came unto us; for  behold the land is cursed, and all things are become slippery, and we cannot  hold them" (vv. 35-36)."

Enjoy your day.




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The nuclear solution to the housing problem Externalities, Moral Hazard, and System Design

1/4/2012

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A recent 60 minutes segment highlighted the peculiar situation in  Cleveland where perfectly good homes have been abandoned and are being bulldozed by the county. To preserve and protect its tax base the county has begun to bulldoze these abandoned homes. One in four mortgages in America are under water. Most are what they call “non recourse” loans where people can hand over the keys to the bank without being liable. Foreclosures rates have hit record levels due to the high rates of unemployment and depressed property values.
 
The Banks are foreclosing and evicting tenants, but to avoid paying the property tax and maintenance costs of the properties the banks are not taking possession of the properties after they have the owners evicted. As a result these homes often become targets for looters, get stripped down and become dilapidated. Abandoned homes thus become blight to their neighborhoods a  negative externality in the parlance of economics. The consequences and benefits (in this case negative) of a transaction between a homeowner and a bank have spillover effects to people who have nothing to do with the transaction.
 
By aggressively evicting tenants and foreclosing, the banks are actually depressing real estate of people who are not their customers. A county official suggested that it might be in the banks interest to lay off evictions so as to not further drive down real estate prices. The movie Margin Call shows why it may be in the competitive interest (Game theory maybe a Nash Equilibrium) to try and be the first to sell off the shoddy assets.
 
The banks would argue that any kind of leniency or accommodation might lead to moral hazard and set legal precedents. Of course this logic applied when the banks and the entire financial system was at risk due in most part because of overaggressive risk taking by financial institutions.
 
This latest chapter of the housing bubble highlights the importance of market design, a key point that is often unemphasized/overlooked in economic analysis.

 Markets do not exist naturally in nature.  In order for markets to be effective and efficient they must be designed properly. Some markets require more regulation than others. We see this at a micro level with the mortgage market and as well as at a national level with the Eurozone (and someday in the next couple of  years we will see it with China).

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