The world is in love with the China story and the all too human tendency to extrapolate recent performance (regardless if it is dubious) far into the future is the norm for those forecasting Chinese growth.
China is a commnist country that allocates capital very inefficiently. Too much of the economy is SOEs and the size of the banking sector (with its exposure to a real estate bubble) rivals that of the US, a mature economy.
Caixin on China's State Owned Enterprises(SOEs).
“In October 2011, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) released a breakdown of state-owned assets and earnings information for 102 for-profit SOEs. This showed that in 2010, the capital of 102 central-level SOEs was equivalent to 61.4 percent of GDP, and their earnings equaled 42.2 percent of GDP.
This information is representative of only those central-level SOEs that can be published. There are actually 120 for-profit SOEs authorized by SASAC. Fifteen percent of them are legally prohibited from releasing this kind of information. If you include industries outside of those legal requirements, like the tobacco and finance industries, the scope of SOEs is even more alarming. The second national economic census taken in 2008 reported profits of nearly 900 billion yuan by finance industry central-level SOEs. Banks accounted for 64 percent of that profit.”
Here is a link to The Economist's (Newspaper) Democracy index.
Notice that China sits in the lowest category, as one of the worst countries in the world, 141 out of 167.
Russia is in the same category as China, only higher at 117. Brazil is 45, South Korea is 22, United States is 19, Japan 21, Malaysia is 71. So who is China more likely to evolve towards in the next century?
Here is a Time article discussing that Malaysia has fallen into a middle income trap. How then is it that China, one of the most oppressive corrupt centrally planned economies in the world, is going to do as well, or better than Malaysia? Malaysian GDP is $8,600- Chinese is $5,200 in 2011 according to IMF.
It seems to me the most reasonable assumption is that China will follow a path of crony capitalism as Russia did when the Soviet Union collapsed.
She says "Oh baby, just you shut your mouth!"
China is a commnist country that allocates capital very inefficiently. Too much of the economy is SOEs and the size of the banking sector (with its exposure to a real estate bubble) rivals that of the US, a mature economy.
Caixin on China's State Owned Enterprises(SOEs).
“In October 2011, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) released a breakdown of state-owned assets and earnings information for 102 for-profit SOEs. This showed that in 2010, the capital of 102 central-level SOEs was equivalent to 61.4 percent of GDP, and their earnings equaled 42.2 percent of GDP.
This information is representative of only those central-level SOEs that can be published. There are actually 120 for-profit SOEs authorized by SASAC. Fifteen percent of them are legally prohibited from releasing this kind of information. If you include industries outside of those legal requirements, like the tobacco and finance industries, the scope of SOEs is even more alarming. The second national economic census taken in 2008 reported profits of nearly 900 billion yuan by finance industry central-level SOEs. Banks accounted for 64 percent of that profit.”
Here is a link to The Economist's (Newspaper) Democracy index.
Notice that China sits in the lowest category, as one of the worst countries in the world, 141 out of 167.
Russia is in the same category as China, only higher at 117. Brazil is 45, South Korea is 22, United States is 19, Japan 21, Malaysia is 71. So who is China more likely to evolve towards in the next century?
Here is a Time article discussing that Malaysia has fallen into a middle income trap. How then is it that China, one of the most oppressive corrupt centrally planned economies in the world, is going to do as well, or better than Malaysia? Malaysian GDP is $8,600- Chinese is $5,200 in 2011 according to IMF.
It seems to me the most reasonable assumption is that China will follow a path of crony capitalism as Russia did when the Soviet Union collapsed.
She says "Oh baby, just you shut your mouth!"
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