Another brilliant investment letter. Via Zerohedge. If I understand his views correctly, I think this is my new viewpoint of how the world will unfold over the course of the next decade.
I summarize what (I think) Hugh's current investment views are....
I love the article and I think what he is saying is that his current view is that the game of one central bank responding by trying to outdo the next central bank by way of looser monetary policy is going to continue for the foreseeable future. The Japanese are the ones, because of their fragile situation, who will have to respond most aggressively to the game of competitive devaluation which should be good for Japanese equities but bad for the yen.
The world suffers from overcapacity and China, by doing more investment in the last decade than the US did in the last century, has added to the global overcapacity that already existed as a result of the thirty year debt super cycle.
Reforms will fail in China, Japan, Europe and the US. IE, politicians will fail to make the proper adjustments that that would stem inequality and unemployment in their country and that after several years would lead their economies to be self sustaining. This will cause central banks the world over to incrementally ratchet up (or perhaps in the case of the US Fed -fail to taper) their extraordinary policy response to new levels.
The results will be uniformly good for asset prices for the medium term. In the long run we will see a global macroeconomic crisis of unprecedented levels. In the mean time being long just about anything will yield you great returns.
Hendry is saying to his investors "I am joining the party" and will be a trend following lemming like everyone else, but I will also provide some disaster insurance that will offset the big collapse when it comes -so much so that you will make money f you are with me even when the world comes to an end - which it will with 100% probability.
Favorite line from the article (this is like asking me to chose b/n Beyoncé and Rhianna)
"The monster has to grow. Note that since the Fed turned the tables with its QE policy in 2009, China has had to consume more concrete in its roads, rail projects, bridges, factory construction and new buildings than the US did during the entire 20th century."